Note:
The following was written in August 2020.
For almost 6 months now we have been in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and I decided I would like to express how the pandemic has caused me to change and solidify my thinking about risk.
I believe that I have a higher than average risk tolerance, I turned down a few real job offers out of college for an internship at a startup that only had the potential to turn into a fulltime job. That risk tolerance, however, is calculated. There are a few things that go into my “risk assessment model”: the potential upside vs downside; the amount of unknown; and the amount of control I will have.
I look at the potential upside versus the potential downside and the likelihood of each outcome coming to pass. I also look at where on the scale from worst case to best case I believe the real outcome to fall. When weighing the risk vs the reward, I like to make sure that I believe that the potential best-case reward far outweighs the potential worst-case risk. For example, I generally am a fairly defensive driver because I don’t believe that the reward of getting to my destination slightly faster outweighs the risk, however small, of getting killed or killing others in a car crash. The potential upside simply doesn’t warrant risking the potential downside. During the present pandemic, I believe that the potential downside of wearing a mask, which is very little in my opinion, does not outweigh the potential benefit that wearing one could provide me and those I come in contact with.
Another factor that goes into my “model” is the amount of unknown in the situation or scenario. I understand that I can’t know everything in taking a risk, but I like to minimize the amount of unknown especially as it pertains to the potential upside and downside. The long term effects of contracting COVID are not very well known or understood at this point, for example. The full potential downside of getting it is unknown whereas the potential downside of other risks, such as getting behind the wheel of a car or flying on an airplane, are much better understood and known.
Finally, I assess how much of the risk I control, how much other people control, and how much is purely up to chance. For areas of the risk where I have control, I like to make sure that I am as prepared as possible, am confident in my abilities, and accurately assessing them. In areas where others have control, I try and evaluate how competent and capable those people are and how much I trust them and their decision-making skills if I know who those people will be. If I do not know who those people are, I try and generalize about who I might be dealing with and I usually tend to err on the side of assuming that those unknown people will be less competent and capable than I would like. With COVID, I understand that I control where I go and what environments I enter. When it comes to associating with others, I try and limit my exposure to as many known and as few unknown people as possible so I can ensure that I come in contact with people I believe are trustworthy and taking the proper precautions. In short, I don’t want my health to depend too much on other people acting responsibly.
Life is full of risks and we cannot live without taking them, risk is simply a part of life that we can’t avoid. We can, however, make sure that we are taking risks worth taking. We can make sure that we are taking risks we understand. And, we can make sure that we control as much of the risk as possible. To completely avoid risk is to completely miss out on living a fulfilling life and reaching our potential. To confront risk well, I believe, is to maximize our potential and live a life worth living.
Stay safe, stay smart, and stay thoughtful.
-Andrew
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